Friday, October 15, 2010
Marketing Strategy: Presence and Reason
Monday, October 11, 2010
Edison is Back!
歌词
他每天上班 下班 加班
吃不下饭
穿衬衫 打领带
黑皮鞋 黑眼袋
黑棉猜
太阳好大 好碍眼
晒得他好邋遢
他看着101
幻想着有天他也会发达
就算是一辈子
也买不起栋房子
就算买了也会累死
他到底干嘛要这样子
他不想当宅男
要当就当豪宅男
这种梦比登天还难
他到底应该要怎么办
mr sandman
Bring me a dream
make it the cutest that i've ever seen
give him the tips
like roses in clover
then tell hom that his lone some nights are over
mr sandman
i'm so alone
don't have nobody to call my own
please turn on
your magic beams
mr sandman bring me a dream
她是個Young lady 會被老闆吃吃豆腐
牵牵手
摸摸屁股
点头论足她穿的衣服 oh
他討厭他的BOSS
有苦难言
她很O
虚伪的面具到处都有
乾脆辞职说了就GO
她是要去哪咧 她到底搞清楚了没
她觉得未来的路是黑 为何她不顾是非
需要点勇气
需要多点lucky
或许爱她的Honey
或许多一点money
他自己也搞不清
Oh mr
sandman
请给他一个梦想
Oh mr sandman
请给我一个梦想
Oh mr sandman
mr
sandman
我叫做陈冠希
和你一样
我有痛苦和压力
也想过要放弃
没私人飞机
过海关也会被哔哔
我假装笑嘻嘻
假装日子一样
bling bling
我的生活
像是一场马戏团的show
跳来跳去下一关
我想试试Super Mario
oh
no
我的父母告诉我
这世界属于我
当时我怀疑
这到底是对还是错
醉生梦死
多少次
对着镜子问着
why me
mr sandman please
请你帮我把梦快递
和你一样
其实我和你一样
mr sandman
请你带给我们一个希望
mr sandman
bring me a dream
make it the cutest that i've ever seen
give hm the tips like roses in clover
then tell him that
his lone some nights are over
mr sandman
i am so alone
don't have nobody
to call my own
please turn on your magic beams
mr sandman bring me a dream
Friday, October 08, 2010
Eulogy by Mr. Lee Kuan Yew to his beloved wife
Ancient peoples developed and ritualised mourning practices to express the shared grief of family and friends, and together show not fear or distaste for death, but respect for the dead one; and to give comfort to the living who will miss the deceased.
I recall the ritual mourning when my maternal grandmother died some 75 years ago. For five nights the family would gather to sing her praises and wail and mourn at her departure, led by a practiced professional mourner.
Such rituals are no longer observed. My family’s sorrow is to be expressed in personal tributes to the matriarch of our family.
In October 2003 when she had her first stroke, we had a strong intimation of our mortality.
My wife and I have been together since 1947 for more than three quarters of our lives. My grief at her passing cannot be expressed in words. But today, when recounting our lives together, I would like to celebrate her life.
In our quiet moments, we would revisit our lives and times together. We had been most fortunate. At critical turning points in our lives, fortune favoured us.
As a young man with an interrupted education at Raffles College, and no steady job or profession, her parents did not look upon me as a desirable son-in-law. But she had faith in me.
We had committed ourselves to each other. I decided to leave for England in September 1946 to read law, leaving her to return to Raffles College to try to win one of the two Queen’s Scholarships awarded yearly. We knew that only one Singaporean would be awarded. I had the resources, and sailed for England, and hoped that she would join me after winning the Queen’s Scholarship.
If she did not win it, she would have to wait for me for three years.
In June the next year, 1947, she did win it. But the British colonial office could not get her a place in Cambridge.
Through Chief Clerk of Fitzwilliam, I discovered that my Censor at Fitzwilliam, W S Thatcher, was a good friend of the Mistress of Girton, Miss Butler.
He gave me a letter of introduction to the Mistress. She received me and I assured her that Choo would most likely take a “First”, because she was the better student when we both were at Raffles College.
I had come up late by one
term to Cambridge, yet passed my first year qualifying examination with a class 1. She studied Choo’s academic record and decided to admit her in October that same year, 1947.
We have kept each other company ever since. We married privately in December 1947 at Stratford-upon-Avon. At Cambridge, we both put in our best efforts. She took a first in two years in Law Tripos II. I took a double first, and a starred first for the finals, but in three years.
We did not disappoint our tutors. Our Cambridge Firsts gave us a good start in life. Returning to Singapore, we both were taken on as legal assistants in Laycock & Ong, a
thriving law firm in Malacca Street. Then we married officially a second time that September 1950 to please our parents and friends. She practised conveyancing and draftsmanship, I did litigation.
In February 1952, our first son Hsien Loong was born. She took maternity leave for a year.
That February, I was asked by John Laycock, the Senior Partner, to take up the case of the Postal and Telecommunications Uniformed Staff Union, the postmen’s union.
They were negotiating with the government for better terms and conditions of service. Negotiations were deadlocked and they decided to go on strike. It was a battle for public support. I was able to put across the reasonableness of their case through the press and radio. After a fortnight, they won concessions from the government. Choo, who was at home on maternity leave, pencilled through my draft statements, making them simple and clear.
Over the years, she influenced my writing style. Now I write in short sentences, in the active voice. We gradually influenced each other’s ways and habits as we adjusted and accommodated each other.
We knew that we could not stay starry-eyed lovers all our lives; that life was an on-going challenge with new problems to resolve and manage.
We had two more children, Wei Ling in 1955 and Hsien Yang in 1957. She brought them up to be well-behaved, polite, considerate and never to throw their weight as the prime minister’s children.
As a lawyer, she earned enough, to free me from worries about the future of our children.
She saw the price I paid for not having mastered Mandarin when I was young. We decided to send all three children to Chinese kindergarten and schools.
She made sure they learned English and Malay well at home. Her nurturing has equipped them for life in a multi-lingual region.
We never argued over the upbringing of our children, nor over financial matters. Our earnings and assets were jointly held. We were each other’s confidant.
She had simple pleasures. We would walk around the Istana gardens in the evening, and I hit golf balls to relax.
Later, when we had grandchildren, she would take them to feed the fish and the swans in the Istana ponds. Then we would swim. She was interested in her surroundings, for instance, that many bird varieties were pushed out by mynahs and crows eating
up the insects and vegetation.
She discovered the curator of the gardens had cleared wild grasses and swing fogged for mosquitoes, killing off insects they fed on. She stopped this and the bird varieties returned. She surrounded the swimming pool with free flowering scented flowers and derived great pleasure smelling them as she swam.
She knew each flower by its popular and botanical names. She had an enormous capacity for words.
She had majored in English literature at Raffles College and was a voracious reader, from Jane Austen to JRR Tolkien, from Thucydides’ The Peloponnesian Wars to Virgil’s Aeneid, to The Oxford Companion to Food, and Seafood of Southeast Asia, to Roadside Trees of Malaya, and Birds of Singapore.
She helped me draft the Constitution of the PAP. For the inaugural meeting at Victoria Memorial Hall on 4 November 1954, she gathered the wives of the founder members to sew rosettes for those who were going on stage.
In my first election for Tanjong Pagar, our home in Oxley Road, became the HQ to assign cars provided by my supporters to ferry voters to the polling booth.
She warned me that I could not trust my new found associates, the leftwing trade unionists led by Lim Chin Siong. She was furious that he never sent their high school student helpers to canvass for me in Tanjong Pagar, yet demanded the use of cars provided by my supporters to ferry my Tanjong Pagar voters.
She had an uncanny ability to read the character of a person. She would sometimes warn me to be careful of certain persons; often, she turned out to be right.
When we were about to join Malaysia, she told me that we would not succeed because the UMNO Malay leaders had such different lifestyles and because their politics were communally-based, on race and religion.
I replied that we had to make it work as there was no better choice. But she was right.
We were asked to leave Malaysia before two years.
When separation was imminent, Eddie Barker, as Law Minister, drew up the draft legislation for the separation. But he did not include an undertaking by the Federation Government to guarantee the observance of the two water agreements between the PUB and the Johor state government. I asked Choo to include this. She drafted the undertaking as part of the constitutional amendment of the Federation of Malaysia Constitution itself.
She was precise and meticulous in her choice of words. The amendment statute was annexed to the Separation Agreement, which we then registered with the United Nations.
The then Commonwealth Secretary Arthur Bottomley said that if other federations were to separate, he hoped they would do it as professionally as Singapore and Malaysia.
It was a compliment to Eddie’s and Choo’s professional skills. Each time Malaysian Malay leaders threatened to cut off our water supply, I was reassured that this clear and solemn international undertaking by the Malaysian government in its Constitution will get us a ruling by the UNSC (United Nations Security Council).
After her first stroke, she lost her left field of vision. This slowed down her reading. She learned to cope, reading with the help of a ruler. She swam every evening and kept fit. She continued to travel with me, and stayed active despite the stroke. She stayed in touch with her family and old friends.
She listened to her collection of CDs, mostly classical, plus some golden oldies. She jocularly divided her life into “before stroke” and “after stroke”, like BC and AD.
She was friendly and considerate to all associated with her. She would banter with her WSOs (woman security officers) and correct their English grammar and pronunciation in a friendly and cheerful way. Her former WSOs visited her when she was at NNI. I thank them all.
Her second stroke on 12 May 2008 was more disabling. I encouraged and cheered her on, helped by a magnificent team of doctors, surgeons, therapists and nurses.
Her nurses, WSOs and maids all grew fond of her because she was warm and considerate. When she coughed, she would take her small pillow to cover her mouth because she worried for them and did not want to infect them.
Her mind remained clear but her voice became weaker. When I kissed her on her cheek, she told me not to come too close to her in case I caught her pneumonia.
I assured her that the doctors did not think that was likely because I was active.
When given some peaches in hospital, she asked the maid to take one home for my lunch. I was at the centre of her life.
On 24 June 2008, a CT scan revealed another bleed again on the right side of her brain. There was not much more that medicine or surgery could do except to keep her comfortable.
I brought her home on 3 July 2008. The doctors expected her to last a few weeks. She lived till 2nd October, 2 years and 3 months.
She remained lucid. They gave time for me and my children to come to terms with the inevitable. In the final few months, her faculties declined. She could not speak but her cognition remained.
She looked forward to have me talk to her every evening.
Her last wish she shared with me was to enjoin our children to have our ashes placed together, as we were in life.
The last two years of her life were the most difficult. She was bedridden after small successive strokes; she could not speak but she was still cognisant.
Every night she would wait for me to sit by her to tell her of my day’s activities and to read her favourite poems. Then she would sleep.
I have precious memories of our 63 years together. Without her, I would be a different man, with a different life. She devoted herself to me and our children.
She was always there when I needed her. She has lived a life full of warmth and meaning.
I should find solace at her 89 years of her life well lived. But at this moment of the final parting, my heart is heavy with sorrow and grief.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Mixed Rice, or some called it Economical Rice
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Autobiography
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Interesting Article on Mamee-Double Decker
●南洋商报李佳讯
着名基金经理彼得林奇(Peter Lynch)在“One Up On Wall Street”写过,“零售和批发商、制造商、销售人员、清洁工,或者分析员都会碰到无数选择股票的好机会”,很奇怪的是,现实市场上,许多投资者都不知道要投资什么股票?”
今天,笔者要讨论一家大部分人都接触过,但可能不知道是一家上市公司的公司,那就是妈咪大宝达(Mamee,5282,主板消费产品股)。
妈咪大宝达过去是一家非常低调的公司,不过,妈咪大宝达管理层今年开始注重和投资者的关系,同时也委任了一家投资者关系公司,四月时第一次业绩汇报。
我们可以从表1看到,过去5年来,妈咪大宝达营业额平均成长了8%,净盈利则成长了31%,管理层也定下5年内营业额超越10亿的目标。
假设营业额未来5年真能到达10亿(假设基本面没变)、净盈利10%,这里我保守以8%计算,等于8000万的净盈利,相等于每股盈利52.98仙,如果是这样,根据8-9-2010的收市价,本益比是6.3倍。
如果,根据目前的进度,从2009年算起,假设妈咪大宝达能够每年成长8%,那么5年后营业额仅约6亿令吉,如果管理层要实现10亿目标,除了要开发新产品,也需要更积极在零售门市争取更多销售管道。
妈咪大宝达的竞争对手众多,以薯片市场为例,Mister Potato暂时领先Pringles和Jacker这两个品牌。
结束中国业务
快熟面和杯面市场,主要竞争来自Maggie(Nestle 4707)、Cintan(YHS 4642)和Super(新加玻上市)等;如果你想知道谁的品牌比较受欢迎,去霸级市场购物时不妨留意一下,顾客购买快熟面时选择什么品牌。
至于饮料和冷冻奶制品,Cheers都无法和Coca Cola(F&N,3689),Pepsi (CI HLDG,2828)强大的品牌对抗,而冷冻奶制品nutrigen也面对来自Dutch Lady和Nestle的竞争,所以,这两方面盈利贡献并不很大。
因此,妈咪大宝达主要还是注重在零食和快熟面市场,原本拥有的糖果生产线,因为无法获利,今年4月结束。
然后,管理层也结束在中国的业务,把资源集中在本地和东南亚市场(6亿人口)也是良策之一。
RM3.30可买进
从技术分析来看,自7月22日创下新高3.78令吉后,妈咪大宝达就往下调整,形成了两个底部,3.40令吉和3.26令吉,如果要保持涨势,那么,就必须突破3.70令吉这个顶。
从基本分析来看,在3.70令吉的价位,根据年化每股盈利本益比是11.98倍,按照公司50%的股息派发政策,相等于4.2%的周息率。
从周线图来看支持点是2.80令吉,如果跌破,我们可能会看见更低的成交价。
单单从基本面来看,如果真的下跌到2.80令吉,假设基本面没改变本益比是9.06倍,周息率是5.5%。
妈咪大宝达拥有健康资产表和强劲的现金流,笔者看法是,可以在低于3.30令吉价位买进做长期投资。
进·军·印·尼·种·植
目前,妈咪大宝达上半年推出2个新产品,“米片”Rice Chip,之前Mister Potato使用马铃薯,从投资简报资料显示,马铃薯的开销比去年增加了40%,如果使用米来制造“米片”,基于成本更低,而其它品牌并没有“米片”,这是Mister Potato的优势。
另外一个产品是Mie Goreng快熟面(印尼劳工市场),Mie Goreng根据印尼人口味设计。妈咪大宝达下半年准备2500万做为新产品的广告和销售开支。
妈咪大宝达也拨出2000万的资本开销,进军种植油棕的业务,地点是加里曼丹,首期发展2000公顷(今年开始),这是一项联营计划,而妈咪大宝达占60%权益,剩下的权益是印尼一家有经验的种植公司。
1万公顷柚棕园
这项计划分成三个阶段进行,整个计划是种植1万公顷油棕。
新的产品需要更多的销售开支,这是无法避免的,至于种植棕油计划,种植新棕油树一般上必须至少3年才能收割(如果一切顺利),目前,这项计划2010开始,预计2013-2014 才有收获,剩下8000公顷将会等到首期的棕油成熟之后才陆续种植。
妈咪大宝达是否有能支撑2014之后的资本开销?
根据去年的现金流,妈咪大宝达拥有4100万净现金,虽然管理层承诺50%股息政策(假设15仙股息派发需约2265万),扣除股息派发,公司依然拥有足够的现金支撑未来资本开销。
最重要的是,目前妈咪大宝达并没任何负债;2年前,已完成工厂资本开销,同时也还清2007年的债务。
冯氏家族主要股东
妈咪大宝达主要股东是冯氏家族,他们大约持有70%股权,而值得一提的是,目前为止(6-4-2010年报)显示,只有约3%外资机构和3%本地基金持股,这说明了什么?股票流动量约22%。
彼得林奇曾经说过,“如果你找到一只几乎不曾被机构投资者问津的股票,你可能已找到一家可能赚钱的股票 ”。
也许你会疑惑为什么我这样说?如果你有发现,最近国库控股不断脱售手中持股,而被脱售的股票股价不断上涨,你就会明白为什么我这样说!
道理很简单,如果你买进一家稀少基金问津的公司,假设有一天基金经理突然发现这家公司而进场买进,自然的就会推高股价,而你就可能因此得利。
公司背景
妈咪大宝达是一家食品制造公司,1971年成立,主要业务是零食(Mister Potato、Double Decker、Mamee)、快熟面和杯面(Mamee)、饮料(Cheers)、冷冻奶制品(Nutrigen),产品种类达50多种。
公司在马来西亚和缅甸有5间工厂,其中四间在马来西亚,分布在马六甲,雪兰莪和彭亨,缅甸的工厂则负责制造快熟面和只供缅甸内消。
妈咪大宝达拥有运输队伍,可以直接供应各大零售门市需求,同时也委任了150间合格批发商帮助增扩大售管道。年报资料显示,目前,妈咪大宝达营业额70%来自本地,其余来自国外。