Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Mixed Rice, or some called it Economical Rice

Not long ago, Mixed Rice, or more commonly referred to as Chap Fan in Malaysia was my staple meal for lunch. Especially during those college days where budget is always a constraint. (Note the usage of "is" in the previous sentence, as budget constraint remains a problem till nowadays :( )

Then as you grew older, and people starting to learn how to enjoy life, we will switch to lunch at air-conditioned venues with better quality food. In turns, your cost-for-lunch increases tremendously with the increasing level of comfort.

Gotta blame it on inflation that food prices are more expensive these days. Well, will not go into that topic any further as it will involve at least 2,000,000+ blog entries in arguing which economic policy works best for the country. Chap Fan, used to cost about RM2.00 - 3.00 (with fried chicken drumsticks somemore) to a minimum of RM3.50 in today's economy. Guess the high selling price forced the Chap Fan sellers to re-named their business from "economical rice" to "mixed rice", simply because, it's not economical anymore.

Nonetheless, it is still one of the few most affordable lunch options available. If you want to go cheaper than Chap Fan, guess you either have to starve or to rely / hope for free lunch.

Anyway, this is like KL Tower-style blog entry. Super fat layer on the intro, and broom stick skinny content to follow. Sometimes we like to take things for granted, and if it's not "the time of the month" again (p.s. not PMS if you're thinking down that route. No!), i.e. the days between "Pay Day" and "I have used up my savings and i have sheeeet-loads of credit card debt day", we wouldn't have thought of our beloved Chap Fan, as opposed to air-conditioned overpriced outlets like PapaRich, Oldtown, KFC, McD etc etc...

Though it's not as comfortable vs. the abovementioned outlets, but when you get to eat a cheap yet nice meal for lunch, you just feel so good about yourself. One dollar saved is one dollar earned after all.

Maybe, in order to feel rich going forward, perhaps, we need to eat chap fan for lunch on a daily basis from now on... Maybe.


Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Autobiography

I was tossing the idea of drafting an autobiography of myself and my family. well, of course i do agree that i'm a nobody (at least for now, ha!), but i think recording what's happening right now, my plan for the future and my growing stories would be interesting for my descendants. (i hope...)

The idea first sprung up when i was asking my dad about my family tree. My dad was telling me interesting stories like this but nothing really concrete about the whole family thingy. I mean, he said "i think one of your ancestor was a government official during Ching Dynasty day" but no name was mentioned. Good thing is we still have record of our ancestors' home in Guangdong province, China. But, that is. nothing more, nothing less.

i went on google about my ancestors, my surname, the location of our ancestors' home in Guangdong but nothing really meaningful came up. Thus, i think, the Foo family deserves to know more about the legacy of Foo family members.

There's an episode in "The Simpson" season 21 where poor Lisa Simpson was looking up and down for her proud ancestor story (of course is for her aim to get a good grade in school project). interestingly (of course, it's a cartoon for crying out loud), the record of the Simpsons are widely available (a diary in their house's attic, public library, untold story from Grandpa...). She was told that one of her ancestor, Eliza Simpson once freed a black slave, and she's super proud of it, of course, The Simpson ain't a simple cartoon and you have to watch the episode to find out the turn of events.

My point is, History, though labeled as boring for some, but it's nonetheless an very important element in our life. There are lessons to be learnt, and there are moments to be proud of. It isn't the case where we can only learn from successful stories (like the autobiographies sold out there), but there are times where we can learn from small stories in our daily life.

Start collecting stories around you and who knows, one day, our story could be as famous as this bloke's.

Time to start drafting!

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Interesting Article on Mamee-Double Decker

Read this piece on Mamee-Double Decker from a Nanyang article. Interesting ;) He's definitely a huge fan of Mamee Monster!

道股论金: 资产表健康·现金流充沛 妈咪大宝达蓄势待发
2010/09/13 3:34:16 PM
●南洋商报李佳讯

如果笔者说零食已经成为大部分年轻人的喜爱,而快熟面也成为现代人生活的一部分,我相信大家应该不会反对。但是,你身为股市投资者,是否能从这些现代人的习惯中看到投资机会?

着名基金经理彼得林奇(Peter Lynch)在“One Up On Wall Street”写过,“零售和批发商、制造商、销售人员、清洁工,或者分析员都会碰到无数选择股票的好机会”,很奇怪的是,现实市场上,许多投资者都不知道要投资什么股票?”

今天,笔者要讨论一家大部分人都接触过,但可能不知道是一家上市公司的公司,那就是妈咪大宝达(Mamee,5282,主板消费产品股)。

妈咪大宝达过去是一家非常低调的公司,不过,妈咪大宝达管理层今年开始注重和投资者的关系,同时也委任了一家投资者关系公司,四月时第一次业绩汇报。

我们可以从表1看到,过去5年来,妈咪大宝达营业额平均成长了8%,净盈利则成长了31%,管理层也定下5年内营业额超越10亿的目标。

假设营业额未来5年真能到达10亿(假设基本面没变)、净盈利10%,这里我保守以8%计算,等于8000万的净盈利,相等于每股盈利52.98仙,如果是这样,根据8-9-2010的收市价,本益比是6.3倍。

如果,根据目前的进度,从2009年算起,假设妈咪大宝达能够每年成长8%,那么5年后营业额仅约6亿令吉,如果管理层要实现10亿目标,除了要开发新产品,也需要更积极在零售门市争取更多销售管道。

妈咪大宝达的竞争对手众多,以薯片市场为例,Mister Potato暂时领先Pringles和Jacker这两个品牌。

结束中国业务

快熟面和杯面市场,主要竞争来自Maggie(Nestle 4707)、Cintan(YHS 4642)和Super(新加玻上市)等;如果你想知道谁的品牌比较受欢迎,去霸级市场购物时不妨留意一下,顾客购买快熟面时选择什么品牌。

至于饮料和冷冻奶制品,Cheers都无法和Coca Cola(F&N,3689),Pepsi (CI HLDG,2828)强大的品牌对抗,而冷冻奶制品nutrigen也面对来自Dutch Lady和Nestle的竞争,所以,这两方面盈利贡献并不很大。

因此,妈咪大宝达主要还是注重在零食和快熟面市场,原本拥有的糖果生产线,因为无法获利,今年4月结束。

然后,管理层也结束在中国的业务,把资源集中在本地和东南亚市场(6亿人口)也是良策之一。

RM3.30可买进

从技术分析来看,自7月22日创下新高3.78令吉后,妈咪大宝达就往下调整,形成了两个底部,3.40令吉和3.26令吉,如果要保持涨势,那么,就必须突破3.70令吉这个顶。

从基本分析来看,在3.70令吉的价位,根据年化每股盈利本益比是11.98倍,按照公司50%的股息派发政策,相等于4.2%的周息率。

从周线图来看支持点是2.80令吉,如果跌破,我们可能会看见更低的成交价。

单单从基本面来看,如果真的下跌到2.80令吉,假设基本面没改变本益比是9.06倍,周息率是5.5%。

妈咪大宝达拥有健康资产表和强劲的现金流,笔者看法是,可以在低于3.30令吉价位买进做长期投资。

进·军·印·尼·种·植

目前,妈咪大宝达上半年推出2个新产品,“米片”Rice Chip,之前Mister Potato使用马铃薯,从投资简报资料显示,马铃薯的开销比去年增加了40%,如果使用米来制造“米片”,基于成本更低,而其它品牌并没有“米片”,这是Mister Potato的优势。

另外一个产品是Mie Goreng快熟面(印尼劳工市场),Mie Goreng根据印尼人口味设计。妈咪大宝达下半年准备2500万做为新产品的广告和销售开支。

妈咪大宝达也拨出2000万的资本开销,进军种植油棕的业务,地点是加里曼丹,首期发展2000公顷(今年开始),这是一项联营计划,而妈咪大宝达占60%权益,剩下的权益是印尼一家有经验的种植公司。

1万公顷柚棕园

这项计划分成三个阶段进行,整个计划是种植1万公顷油棕。

新的产品需要更多的销售开支,这是无法避免的,至于种植棕油计划,种植新棕油树一般上必须至少3年才能收割(如果一切顺利),目前,这项计划2010开始,预计2013-2014 才有收获,剩下8000公顷将会等到首期的棕油成熟之后才陆续种植。

妈咪大宝达是否有能支撑2014之后的资本开销?

根据去年的现金流,妈咪大宝达拥有4100万净现金,虽然管理层承诺50%股息政策(假设15仙股息派发需约2265万),扣除股息派发,公司依然拥有足够的现金支撑未来资本开销。

最重要的是,目前妈咪大宝达并没任何负债;2年前,已完成工厂资本开销,同时也还清2007年的债务。

冯氏家族主要股东

妈咪大宝达主要股东是冯氏家族,他们大约持有70%股权,而值得一提的是,目前为止(6-4-2010年报)显示,只有约3%外资机构和3%本地基金持股,这说明了什么?股票流动量约22%。

彼得林奇曾经说过,“如果你找到一只几乎不曾被机构投资者问津的股票,你可能已找到一家可能赚钱的股票 ”。

也许你会疑惑为什么我这样说?如果你有发现,最近国库控股不断脱售手中持股,而被脱售的股票股价不断上涨,你就会明白为什么我这样说!

道理很简单,如果你买进一家稀少基金问津的公司,假设有一天基金经理突然发现这家公司而进场买进,自然的就会推高股价,而你就可能因此得利。



公司背景

妈咪大宝达是一家食品制造公司,1971年成立,主要业务是零食(Mister Potato、Double Decker、Mamee)、快熟面和杯面(Mamee)、饮料(Cheers)、冷冻奶制品(Nutrigen),产品种类达50多种。

公司在马来西亚和缅甸有5间工厂,其中四间在马来西亚,分布在马六甲,雪兰莪和彭亨,缅甸的工厂则负责制造快熟面和只供缅甸内消。

妈咪大宝达拥有运输队伍,可以直接供应各大零售门市需求,同时也委任了150间合格批发商帮助增扩大售管道。年报资料显示,目前,妈咪大宝达营业额70%来自本地,其余来自国外。

Thursday, September 09, 2010

Travelling Madness Continues...

Don't get me wrong here. I love my job. After years of working i can finally say this loud and proud.

The hostage incident in Manila was a madness. The bus was literally not more than 50 steps away from my hotel... nonetheless, the delicious pork and mangoes in Philippines totally compensated us for the traumatic events.

Then i thought perhaps it's time to chill for a bit after Manila. Nope, Bangkok i went. It was a very good trip though, compact and impactful i would say. Then boss told me this

"Dude, we're going to Beijing next week."

What? Cool! but i will be going to Singapore that weekend itself!

So it's a whole week of travelling? i think by then i wouldn't have recognised the route back to my office anymore!

I'm always very excited about going to Beijing. Been there once for holiday and totally in love with the city (not the air, not the traffic though). Especially after 2008 olympics, the city is now much cleaner and neater i would say.

Then, something unexpected popped up.

Totally unexpected. I fell sick. High fever.

What's the odd! oh well, gotta forego the beijing trip. That's the downside. Upside is? Got a bit of time to rest before travelling madness resumes, and found abit of time, to write this blog entry.

Thank you for reading another gibberish blog entry of mine.

cheers