Monday, October 20, 2008

Buy, I shall... or would I?

The day after September 15, 2008, people were asking

"how many more banks will fail after Lehman?"

then you have the fannie, freddie, AIG stories...

You see DJIA, S&P500 and hang seng index all breaking all-time by one...

"Hang Seng should be able to hold at 18,000pts. man, can't go lower than that lah!"

"...suppport, definitely a support level, 17,000pts, if it goes lower..."

"No way we can go below 16,000pts! no way!!!"


on 10 Oct, it reaches 14,398.54 pts. lowest point in about 3-years... out of a sudden, the word "Support Level" was like kinda disappear...

then, central banks around the world started to work OT over the weekends trying to save the global economy, then you heard news that democrats and republicans had agreed in principle to pass the US$700 bilion bill but then was later voted down and then they approved it again...

not long after, global central banks started pumping money into the system, but banks were still not lending, then you have news saying that Iceland's on the brink of bankruptcy, banks being nationalised, stocks tumbled ...

credit spreads continued to widen, trading parties' credits were, at one time, worse than the risky commodities they traded in...

then, over last few weeks, people started to believe in "Cash is King" and "Return OF capital is more important than return ON capital"... market liquidity dries up, stocks' valuations look tremedously cheap based on historical standards...

then, when you think this is the end of the world... people started asking..."is it time to buy?"

"are we there yet? i mean bottom lah!"

"buy buy buy! even uncle warren says buy..."

"nah, i rather keep my cash under my pillow, but, which currency should i hold ar?"

and it goes on and on. interestingly, this was the market over the last one month.

well, oh well.

So, just chill mate, just laugh your way through this. Don't give up as yet, as we still need you to make money when the bull markets come... keke

Last word-of-wisdom from Mr. Market

"you could never time the market, so don't bother bottom-picking"

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